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變化中的安全憂慮 - 一個被外國及國內特務寄生的台灣
Security a big concern as changes take effect
By Kengchi Goah 吳耿志 ( 02-25-20 Kengchi Goah is a senior research fellow at the Taiwan Public Policy Council in the US.
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變化中的安全憂慮
(英文臺北時報二月二十五日中文譯稿)
吳耿志
威脅台灣安全的嚴重危險正在顯現。其關鍵時刻正在逼近，而且、已有許多跡象驗證了此一憂慮。毫無疑問，這不是憑空虛造。
那麼，是什麼不祥的徵兆？
花蓮縣長最近宣布，在2015年三月中旬，花蓮機場和幾個中國城市的直接商業航班將開始。如此，一個噩夢般的防空漏洞將為之大開。偽裝成商用飛機的中國一架軍機，可以很容易地把200個武装齊全的特戰人員，在不到30分鐘內降落該機場，在兩小時內用半打運送機，一個軍團即可控制機場以及臺灣東北領空。近旁挖入山洞的軍事設施【佳山空軍基地】將無法操作。經此閃電攻擊，中國就能把美國和日本從關島和沖繩來的干預抹消。
更令人擔憂的，中國遊客湧入台灣。僅在2014年，超過百萬人，幾乎沒有限制的漫遊海島。一部分遊客被認為是潜藏的破壞者--訓練有素的解放軍成員。即使不到百分之一，他們可能造成的破壞是非常可怕的。這些特務，在時機成熟時，會毫不猶疑地宰殺(暗殺)當地的領導人員。
在過去的幾年中，島上的武器彈庫秘密很有可能已經失密。
此外、許多商人和政客，為了他們的財務收益，都心甘情願地犧牲台灣的安全。一些退休的高級軍事官員，甚至在言行上【公然叛變】，在禮儀場合偏袒北京。最壞的是，這樣的賣國行徑似乎受執政【中國國民黨】所鼓勵。不忠的防衛不需要顛覆性的入侵即注定失敗。
就反抗那些黑暗勢力方面，台灣的平民階層似乎完全沒有準備好保衛國家。大多數人民都沒有受過操作最簡單的武器，更不用說半自動或全自動槍支。
台灣人往往在該攤牌時太溫順膽怯。個人和領導人没核心價值，也缺乏決心強烈表達要捍衛該價值。一個人直覺性的屈從他人將永遠的被奴役。這樣一個教訓沒有人需要自己去體驗。
除了內部因素，外部國際環境也不利於台灣。
美國手上事情一大堆，有中東，北非，烏克蘭和北朝鮮的諸多事件。依總統 歐巴馬的世界觀，他把台灣事務置於他的行事表底部。
2016年情况也不會更好，共和黨和民主黨將展開激烈的爭奪白宮。如此高的價碼在桌上，沒有一方有心於台灣問題。在如是缺乏注意力的情況下，北京方面當然會見機利用。
同樣的道理，台灣在2016年的年初將是一個尷尬的境地：新領導人在現任者離職前五個月選出。
一個虛弱的美國，一個好戰的俄羅斯，一個不可預知的北朝鮮，戰火燃燒中的東部烏克蘭，一個混亂的中東地區，一個國族至上的北京，一個被外國及國內特務寄生的台灣：一場完美風暴，預測人員皆認為它會【登陸】。
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Security a big concern as changes take effect
By Kengchi Goah 吳耿志
A grave danger threatening national security is lurking. A critical time is approaching and abundant precursors warrant the concern. Make no mistake, the worries are not hatched from thin air.
What are these ominous signs?
The Hualien County commissioner announced that in the middle of next month, direct commercial flights between Hualien Airport and several Chinese cities would begin.
With that, a nightmarish air defense hole will be opened wide. Disguised as a commercial airliner, a Chinese military plane could easily land 200 fully equipped special operations personnel per aircraft after a flight time of less than 30 minutes. Within two hours and with half a dozen planes, a whole battalion could commandeer the airport and control the nation’s northeastern air space. Chiashan Air Base, a facility dug into a nearby mountain, would be rendered inoperable. With a lightning-quick strike, China could deny US or Japanese intervention from Guam and Okinawa.
Even more worrisome, Chinese visitors are flooding to Taiwan. Last year alone, more than 1 million were roaming the nation with almost no restrictions. Some of the visitors are believed to be saboteurs — highly trained People’s Liberation Army members. Even if the number is less than 1 percent, the potential damage they could do is horrifying. The agents, when the time comes, could mercilessly slaughter local leaders.
In the past few years, classified information about the nation’s weapon depots has most likely been compromised. In addition, a significant number of businesspeople and politicians are willing to trade Taiwan’s security for financial gain. Some retired high-ranking military officers have openly committed treason in word and deed by siding with Beijing on ceremonial occasions. Worse yet, such traitorous acts seem to be sanctioned and encouraged by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). A disloyal defense does not need a subversive intrusion to fail.
Against these dark forces, civilian sectors seem utterly unprepared to defend the nation. Most Taiwanese are not trained to operate the simplest of firearms, let alone semiautomatic or fully automatic guns.
Taiwanese tend to be more docile and timid when it comes to a showdown. A lack of strong core values and, if the values arise, resolve to vehemently express and defend them is true of individuals and leaders. People who instinctively submit condemn themselves to eternal slavery. This is a lesson nobody should learn by experience.
Beside the internal factors, the international environment does not look helpful. The US has its hands full dealing with events in the Middle East, north Africa, Ukraine and North Korea. US President Barack Obama’s worldview places Taiwan at best at the bottom of his agenda.
The situation is not likely to improve next year when the Republican and Democratic parties are set to engage in a fierce fight for the White House. With such high stakes on the table, neither side would spare any time for Taiwan. Given such an attention deficiency, Beijing will certainly take any opportunity it can.
Similarly, next year, Taiwan will be in an awkward position with a new leader elected five months before the current one leaves office in May.
A weakened US, a bellicose Russia, an unpredictable North Korea, a burning Ukraine, a chaotic Middle East, a nationalistic Beijing and a Taiwan infested by hostile agents, foreign and domestic, would be a perfect storm, one that forecasters should be expecting to make landfall.
Kengchi Goah is a senior research fellow at the Taiwan Public Policy Council in the US.
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